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How Did 2007 Compare With Other Years?

Published on December 27, 2007 by Sherri Dodsworth under Business, Cape San Blas, Real Estate

With only 1 1/2 business days left in the year, I think we’re close enough to start taking a look at how 2007 stacked up against previous years. I went back through 2003 and built a spreadsheet showing year by year comparisons of residential sales (lot and land sales will come later) of such data as dollar volume, average list price vs. average sales price, days on market and so on. (I apologize in advance for how this table displays, but the blogging software I use really doesn’t like to import data from Excel and this is the best I could get it to look). Here’s what it revealed:

Year to Year Comparisons of

Cape San Blas Residential Sales

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Total # of Sales

108

141

103

36

35

Dollar Volume Sales

 $26,887,261

 $60,407,700

 $51,754,859

 $19,540,400

 $15,600,000

Average List Price

$395,438

$607,920

$644,636

$546,391

$501,175

Average Sale Price

$379,961

$586,341

$619,903

$499,673

$455,991

Sale/List Price Ratio

96.34%

96.42%

96.22%

76.53%

74.91%

Avg Days on Mkt.

102

100

110

137

278

Avg Monthly Inventory

49

46

145

248

226

The only category that shows any glimmer of improvement is the average monthly inventory, down 8% off last year’s high, but the average days on market has more than doubled over last year and the sales to list price ratio continues to fall. The average sale price is down 26% off the 2005 peak. The most alarming stat of all, though, is in total dollar volume of sales, which this year was down a staggering 74% off the peak of 2004. Unbelievable.

I’m concerned about the number of sales in 2005 which may have 3-year ARMs maturing in 2008. I think the earliest we might reach the market bottom will be late in ’08 or early 2009, but we’ll just have to keep a close eye on the data to spot the early signs of leveling off or reversing trends.

At this rate I think the only safe bet is that by 2009 south Gulf County Realtors will qualify for placement on the Endangered Species List.

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