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Cape San Blas Real Estate Year In Review - 2009

Published on January 1, 2010 by Sherri Dodsworth under Barrier Dunes, Cape San Blas, FEMA, Foreclosures/Short Sales, Forgotten Coast, Indian Pass, Real Estate

The Nw Year Baby Rings in 2010

I love New Year’s Day. It’s one of my favorite holidays, in part because it’s such a nice neat closing of one chapter and opening of the next. I enjoy taking a look at where we’ve just been and reflecting on what lies ahead. Oh, and the champagne toasts at midnight are fun, too. Let’s see how we did in 2009 compared with 2008, and see if the numbers can provide us any clues as to what may be in store for us in 2010.

Overall, relative to 2008, 2009 was a good year for our local real estate market with the total number of houses and lots sold up a very healthy 68%. This year we had a 101 sales in all in the Cape San Blas, Indian Pass and C-30 Corridor Market, with 55 houses and 46 lots sold. Compare this to 2008 when we had a total of just 60 sales, with 41 houses and 19 lots. Quite a remarkable difference. That’s a 34% increase in homes and 142% increase in lot sales.

Looking at the total dollar volume of sales for year over year paints a different picture of our changing market because the gains are not commensurate. Take lot sales. The total number of lots sold was up 142% this year, but the total dollar volume sold increased by only 34%, ($8,486,050 vs. $6,331,000) clearly reflecting lower values. Housing dollar volume wasn’t quite as drastic, posting a 9% increase vs. a 34% increase in units sold. Total dollar volume for sales in our market increased from $25,851,200 in 2008 to $29,826,377 this year, an overall 15% increase. So how do 2009 lot sales compare with past years? Overall it was our best year since 2005.

Year to Year Comparisons of Lot Sales in the

Cape San Blas, Indian Pass & C-30 Corridor Market

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Total # of Sales

195

450

145

18

20

19

Dollar Volume

$30,770,140

$201,817,330

$85,655,000

$10,782,000

$10,058,800

$5,962,500

Avg. Sold Price

$147,556

$455,580

$498,066

$428,972

$502,940

$313,815

Average Days on Mkt.

157

72

123

272

223

229

The average price for lots took a big dive, plunging 45% to $184,479, down from $333,211 last year. The median price fell by 57% to $119,750 from $282,500. Lots are staying on the market longer, with the total Days on Market (DOM) averaging 264, up 19% over 2008.

Housing prices held a little better, with the average price declining only 18 1/2%, from $476,102 to $388,006. The median price fell 34% to $400,000 down from $605,000. Total dollar volume for homes sold was up 9%, at $21,340,327 vs. $19,520,200. It’s taking much longer to sell houses as the average DOM increased by 70% to 281 from 165.

I said at the beginning of the year I believed 2007 may have been the slowest year of all and that we would likely see an increase in sales this year which turned out to be the case, but our market continues to correct from the hyperinflated run-up which peaked locally in 2004. Prices have returned to a price point that is once again attractive to buyers, and the buyers I’m seeing returning are primarily looking for long-term investments or second homes. As Martha would say, “That’s a good thing”. We have moved a lot of bank-owned properties out of the inventory in the past 12 months and that, too, is a good thing. We still have a good way to go, but all indications are we’re recovering.

I hope you’re recovering, too, from your New Year’s Eve revelries. Did you make any resolutions? Mine include working to improve the quality and quantity of useful info I bring you in this blog. It’s been quite a year, and I appreciate my readers who have helped to make it so. My best wishes to you and your loved ones for good health, much love and prosperity in 2010. Happy New Year!

2010 Happy New Year pink text clipart

2 Comments on 'Cape San Blas Real Estate Year In Review – 2009':

Sherri Dodsworth on 01/01/10:

I really appreciate your feedback - thanks! I have resources for tracking sales data, but not rentals. I would imagine most property managers could give you input on how values have adapted to the changing market. I do know that in the past two years the new rental consumer is now frequently either booking at the last minute or in many cases showing up unannounced and asking what's available, and all expect to be cut a discount deal of some sort. I've also been told that even during the peak summer months more guests were regularly booking fewer than the customary 7 days. According to the Tourist Development Council, Gulf County had it's greatest month of rentals ever this past July with collected bed taxes reportedly up 42% over last July. Very impressive. Your'e absolutely right - prices are getting back down to where more properties are going to start cash flowing again and it will greatly improve marketability. If an investor is interested in a modest cap rate, say 4 to 5 per cent, there may well be a selection of propeties already at a point to produce that.

Bill on 01/01/10:

This is fantastic info Sherri, thanks for all of your hard work. Do you have any similar numbers for rental receipts in the area over the past several years? Something like the average rental income for a 3 bed/2 bath Gulf view house etc. Not average rent amount, but actual income before expenses. On second thought, that might be too tough to find out? For instance, up the coast in Gulf Shores, AL - I had a 4 bed/3bath gulf view house that booked $30k in 2006, but only $24k in 2009. Higher rents, but had to give away more freebies to stay competitive. But, the purchase price for that house back then was $700k, and likely would only fetch $350k today at best. At some point, the rents will carry the mortgage for us poor folk who can only put down 20% and need a loan, like they did earlier in the decade - and when that happens I would think smart investors would buy like crazy, if they realized the economics. Bill

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