The year 2024 didn’t quite deliver what many were hoping for in our local real estate market of Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, and the CR/SR 30-A corridor. Yes, there were some impressive luxury sales, and our total market sales volume was not bad, but it was another year of market correction and adjustments as our overall numbers are on the decline for the second consecutive year. While the average sales prices for both homes and vacant lots are actually up, no properties are selling for what they did or could have a couple of years ago. As I noted in the 2023 market summary, our comparative market was due for a correction after the historic outliers we previously experienced in 2021 and 2022, and the correction continued in 2024. Our inventory levels grew throughout most of the year, and properties stayed on the market for quite a bit longer than sellers expected in many cases, with more listings expiring instead of selling. Properties that are priced aggressively are still selling in a reasonable amount of time, but many sellers are stuck on 2022 values which are no longer enticing to buyers in today’s market. Continued sticky inflation and higher interest rates have not helped the cause, and it doesn’t sound like we should expect too much relief on either front in the next few months. Let’s get into some specific data from our residential and vacant land comparative market in 2024.
Starting with a summary of the 2024 residential activity for Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, and the CR/SR 30-A corridor, there were a total of 76 homes sold in 2024 through our MLS, which is a 23% decline from the 99 residential transactions we saw in 2023. Our residential sales volume dropped 13% from $100,615,877 in 2023 to $87,389,454 in 2024. The average price of a home sold in our comparative market actually increased 13% to $1,149,861 in 2024, which is a misleading stat due to more newer construction, luxury homes selling within the past 12 months. The median sales price is also up 17% from last year, coming in at $870,000 for 2024. The average days on the market for residential listings has been on a steady climb over the past 3 years, this year rising to 107 days on the market, a 75% increase from the 61 days average in 2023. Last but not least, listings in 2024 sold for just over 93% of their asking price at the time of the executed contract, but 89% of the asking price when the listing first hit the market. If you’ve been keeping up with the weekly blog you know how many more price reductions we are seeing in our market these days. The table below summarizes these data points over the past 3 years for reference:
Residential Sales - Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, CR/SR 30-A Corridor
| Residential Data | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Number of Sales | 168 | 99 | 76 |
| Sales Volume | $187,866,000 | $100,615,877 | $87,389,454 |
| Average Sales Price | $1,118,250 | $1,016,322 | $1,149,861 |
| Average Days on the Market | 36 | 61 | 107 |
| List/Sales Price Ratio | 97% | 95% | 93% |
The market adjustments continued for vacant land sales in our comparative market in 2024. There were a total of 69 vacant lots sold through our MLS on all of Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, and the CR/SR 30-A corridor, which is down almost 30% from 2023. Land sales volume was also down about 21% in 2024 to $23,326,800. Once again, the average vacant lot sale is actually up year over year from $302,033 to $338,070 in 2024, although most sellers and agents will agree that values are down, especially on non-premium, interior properties. The median sales price for vacant lots is also up from $175,000 in 2022 and 2023 to $195,000 in 2024. The average days on the market is up to 111 days in 2024, and the average list to sales price ratio was 90% at the time of the executed contract, but 86% list to sales price ratio from original asking price (before price adjustments). Here’s another summary table showing the data trends for vacant lot sales in our comparative market over the past 3 years:
Vacant Lot Sales - Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, CR/SR 30-A Corridor
| Vacant Lot Data | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Number of Sales | 172 | 98 | 69 |
| Sales Volume | $48,549,400 | $29,599,249 | $23,326,800 |
| Average Sales Price | $282,264 | $302,033 | $338,070 |
| Average Days on the Market | 103 | 100 | 111 |
| List/Sales Price Ratio | 94% | 92% | 90% |
While we have seen some market corrections over the past couple of years, overall values are in pretty good shape in most cases considering the circumstances. With inventory up across the board in an election year, a smaller and more selective pool of buyers were also facing higher insurance premiums and interest rates in our comparative market. We didn’t see the predicted rate cuts last year, but the decisive election results could help some consumer confidence and potentially get more buyers off the fence in 2025. Rental income is also a significant consideration for many buyers in our market, and income returns have been on the decline over the past couple of years for the majority of rental properties, although not as much in 2024 compared to 2023 post-Covid. The popularity of the area is still extremely high, as Gulf County posted another record year for lodging tax revenues, but there are so many more new construction rental homes available now which has lessened individual returns in many cases.
Our rising inventory situation should keep things competitive in 2025, as the rules of supply and demand will dictate future values. In January of 2023 there were 35 homes and 90 lots for sale on all of Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, and the CR/SR 30-A corridor. At the beginning of 2024 those numbers grew to 80 homes and 97 lots, and by August 2024 we were looking at 149 homes and 130 lots listed for sale on our comparative market MLS. Thanks to some sporadic fall activity and expired or withdrawn listings, those numbers have decreased to our current January 2025 inventory levels of 105 homes and 97 lots on the relevant market, but I’m expecting these numbers to increase with new and returning spring sellers. Buyers should have more options available with negotiating power in 2025, while sellers will need to be more aggressive and strategic with pricing in an increasingly competitive market. Gulf county has been noted as a potential top luxury and second home market in 2025, and we’ve remained a fairly insulated market with a higher concentration of cash buyers compared to the national average of just over 30%. Out of the combined 76 residential and 69 vacant lot transactions in 2024, 52% were were cash deals (36 residential and 39 vacant lot cash sales). There are still interested buyers in our market, but the pool is smaller due to the high prices and holding costs. Many national experts are predicting a slightly improving market in 2025 due to pent-up demand following an election year with more folks coming to terms with the new norm for interest rates. I believe that we’ll see some improvement in our local market in 2025, but nothing close to what we saw in the recent outlier years when interest rates were historically low while the supply and demand heavily favored the sellers. Things have to make sense and remain affordable for buyers in today’s market, and many sellers may need to continue to adjust expectations. It’s more important than ever for both buyers and sellers to work with qualified, local, and well-informed agents who know the ins and outs of this specific market.
I’m looking forward to increased production for our local real estate market in 2025. As I’ve said before, regardless of market conditions, Gulf County remains a special place to reside and visit with so many unspoiled natural resources and beautiful surroundings. The prognosis looks good for long-term property values and managed growth due to the unique lay of the land and water combined with the lack of crowds and traffic. Let me know anytime I can assist with your real estate needs – (850)899-8765 or [email protected]. Here’s to another great year at the beach!
North Cape San Blas, framing St. Joe Bay to the right with the St. Joseph Peninsula State Park in the distance